Project description

Timeline

Proposal due Thurs, Sept 17

Literature review complete by Thurs, Oct 08

Data and experimental design plan complete by Thurs, Nov 05

Final term paper due Tues, Dec 15

Introduction

TL;DR: Pick a data set and develop a demand and/or policy analysis for it. That is your term project.

The goal of the term project is for you to use aggregate and/or disaggregate demand analysis to analyze a data set of your own choosing. Choose the data based on your interests or work you all have done in other courses or research projects. The goal of this project is for you to demonstrate proficiency in the techniques we have covered in this class (and beyond, if you like!) and apply them to a data set to analyze it in a meaningful way.

Logistics

You will work on the project as an individual.

The final deliverables for the term project is a journal-style manuscript. If interested, I am happy to support the implementation of promising papers into a thesis chapter and/or publication.

Project proposal

The purpose of the project proposal is to help you think about your analysis strategy early and receive feedback. The more effort and detail you demonstrate in the proposal, the more complete feedback you will receive from me.

Include the following in the proposal:

Section 1 - Introduction

The introduction section includes:

  • An introduction to the subject matter you’re investigating
  • The motivation for your research question (citing any relevant literature)
  • The general research question you wish to explore
  • Your hypotheses regarding the research question of interest

Section 2 - Data description

In this section, you will describe the dataset you wish to explore. This includes:

  • Description of the observations in the data set,
  • Description of how the data was originally collected (not how you found the data but how the original curator of the data collected it).

Section 3 - Analysis approach

In this section, you will provide a brief overview of your analysis approach. This includes:

  • Description of the response variable
  • Visualization and summary statistics for the response variable
  • List of variables that will be considered as predictors
  • Preliminary regression model technique(s) (e.g., multiple linear regression, logistic regression, mixed logit discrete choice)
  • Study methodological focus (e.g., prediction, policy analysis, new econometric methods)

Proposal grading

Total 10 pts
Introduction 4 pts
Data description 2 pts
Analysis plan 4 pts

Each component will be graded as follows:

  • Meets expectations (full credit): All required elements are completed and are accurate. The narrative is written clearly, all tables and visualizations are nicely formatted, and the work would be presentable in a professional setting.

  • Close to expectations (half credit): There are some elements missing and/or inaccurate. There are some issues with formatting.

  • Does not meet expectations (no credit): Major elements missing. Work is not neatly formatted and would not be presentable in a professional setting.

Literature review

The purpose of the literature review is to situate your work in the existing literature. There is no formal deliverable. Dates and details are provided for your reference only.

Below is a brief description of the areas to focus on in the literature review:

  • What are the main themes in your field of study?
  • Has your research question been examined in prior work? If so, was it for a different geographic area? What were the findings of previous studies?
  • How does your proposed research contributes to the existing literature? Do you propose a new method? Will you make use of a new dataset that facilates more detailed or new analysis?

Data and experimental design plan

The draft data and experimental design plan is an opportunity to receive feedback on your work prior to starting empirical estimation. There is no formal deliverable. Dates and details are provided for your reference only.

Review criteria

  • Are the research motivation and objectives clearly stated?
  • Do the research objectives have a logical structure centered on the research motivation? Objectives should be easily understood and limited to the key objectives - a suggested number of objectives is 3-5.
  • Do the research questions/hypotheses flow logically from the motivations and objectives defined in the previous section?
  • Do the research questions/hypotheses demonstrate extensive thought about the process under study and its mechanisms?
  • Are the research questions firmly situated in the literature in terms of previous findings and how your work contributes to the relevant literature?
  • Are the data sufficient to address the research questions included in the research plan?
  • If an econometric methods paper, is there sufficient sophistication in the proposed work based on the background of the student?
  • If causal inference paper paper, is there an identification strategy that is supported by the literature and available data?
  • If a policy evaluation plan, is there a clear translation of outcomes into policy recommendations?

Final term paper

The final term paper is an opportunity to demonstrate your ability to apply the methods from the course to a research question. You will submit the PDF of your paper on D2L.

There is a 15-page limit for the paper (excluding references). You may use any manuscript structure that makes sense for your research. The following sections and structure are provided as guidance for marking purposes only. The paper will be marked out of 60, broken down as follows

Total 60 pts
Introduction 6 pts
Data 10 pts
Research questions/hypotheses 10 pts
Analysis 24 pts
Conclusions 6 pts
Organization + formatting 4 pts

Introduction

This section includes an introduction to the project motivation and objectives.

Review criteria

  1. The research motivation and objectives are clearly stated in the introduction, including citations for any external research.
  2. The research objectives have a logical structure centered on the research motivation. Objectives should be easily understood and limited to the key objectives - a suggested number of objectives is 3-5.

Research questions/hypotheses

This section provides an elaboration of the research objectives, questions, and hypotheses. It should provide a clear connection to the data and analysis plan discussed in the subsequent sections. A research question may relate to the feasibility of a new econometric method; the effectiveness of a policy, incentive, or regulation; or the behavioural response of individuals, firms, or other entities to a change in an engineering system (e.g., travel time, cost of water, etc.).

Grading criteria

  1. The research questions/hypotheses are clearly stated and flow logically from the motivations and objectives defined in the previous section.
  2. The research questions/hypotheses demonstrate extensive thought about the process under study and its mechanisms.

Data

This section should detail the datasets used to accomplish the research objectives and answer the associated research questions/hypotheses. The data section may provide details on data formats and sources. You may discuss the reliability of each data source in terms of its sample size relative to the population, measurement accuracy, and other details discussed in lecture. You should discuss the limitations of each dataset in terms of its spatial and temporal resolution, completeness, and other details discussed in lecture. This section may also include a discussion of data processing steps. It may include basic summary statistics and charts, depending upon the availability of data (e.g., a study proposing a new survey instrument would not require such details) and the complexity of the data processing task.

Grading criteria

  1. The data are sufficient to address the research questions included in the research plan.
  2. Sufficient detail is provided for the reader to understand the merits and limitations of the proposed datasets.
  3. The research questions are firmly situated in the literature in terms of previous findings and how your work contributes to the relevant literature.

Analysis

This section is the core of the paper. You should demonstrate how you integrated data and methods to accomplish your researh objectives. You should include a discussion of the methods, as well as practical details. Methods might include econometric models, statistical tests, algorithms, or other analytics. Practical details are the specific software packages you used in the work. If the research includes a survey, its details should be provided here including survey questions, sample frame, recruitment methods, and other details necessary to assess the ability of the survey instrument to answer the research question(s). An econometric methods paper must include derivations. A causal inference paper must include a plausible identification strategy that is specific to the research question.

Grading criteria

  1. Sufficient detail is provided for the reader to execute the research plan with minimal assumptions.
  2. If an ecometric methods paper, there is sufficient sophistication in the proposed work based on the background of the student. If a causal inference paper, the identification strategy is supported by the literature and available data. If a policy analysis plan, suitable policy evaluation/sensitivity work is done.

Organization + formatting

This is an assessment of the overall presentation and formatting of the written manuscript.

Grading criteria

  1. The paper is neatly written and organized with clear section headers and appropriately sized figures with informative labels.
  2. Numerical results are displayed with a reasonable number of digits, and all visualizations are neatly formatted.
  3. All citations and links are properly formatted.
  4. The main body of the written manuscript (not including the references) is no longer than 15 pages.

Grading summary

Grading of the term paper will take into account the following:

  • Content - What is the quality of research and/or policy question and relevancy of data to those questions?
  • Correctness - Are statistical procedures executed correctly?
  • Writing and Presentation - What is the quality of the statistical presentation, writing, and explanations?
  • Creativity and Critical Thought - Is the research carefully thought out? Are the limitations carefully considered? Does it appear that time and effort went into the planning of the research?

A general breakdown of scoring is as follows:

  • 90%-100%: Outstanding effort. Student understands how to apply all econometric and policy analysis concepts, can translate their learning into a cogent research plan, can identify weaknesses in the plan, and can clearly communicate the plan to others.
  • 80%-89%: Good effort. Student understands most of the concepts, puts together an adequate research plan, identifies some weaknesses of their plan, and communicates most research elements clearly to others.
  • 70%-79%: Passing effort. Student has misunderstanding of concepts in several areas, has some trouble putting concepts together in a cogent research plan, and communication of plans is sometimes unclear.
  • 60%-69%: Struggling effort. Student is making some effort, but has misunderstanding of many concepts and is unable to put together a cogent research plan. Communication of results is unclear.
  • Below 60%: Student is not making a sufficient effort.